What should the U.S. do about Iran?

 

Hardly a day goes by without our hearing new reports about Iran’s provocative, confrontational actions toward the United States, the U.N. and other nations:

•  Building a nuclear bomb.

•Financing and training Shiite fighters in Iraq.

•  Threatening Israel with extinction.

•Financing, training and arming terrorist organizations, such as al-Qaeda in Iraq, Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Palestine.

• Challenging ships in the Persian Gulf with military speed boats.

•Sending Revolutionary Guard fighters into Iraq.

•Harboring al-Qaeda and Shiite enemies of Iraq and the U.S.

The latest is that they are reported to be holding five British soldiers who were kidnapped in Iraq.

Cutting through all the talk about Iran, my sense is that there are two basic questions about the situation: Can we really determine Iran’s intentions with certainty? What are the options?

But, first some observations:

• In “Islam and the Iranian Dilemma,” Amil Imani, an Iranian, noted, “Muslims are taught deception and lying by the Quran itself – something that Muhammad practiced during his life whenever he found it expedient. Successive Islamic rulers and leaders have done the same.” (www.chronwatch-america.com)

• Hitler said about the Nazi invasion of Czechoslovakia in 1938, “Fait accompli must convince foreign powers of the hopelessness of intervention.” (Iran: Taking the Nazi Road to War, by Brian Melton, 4/10/2008, chronwatch-america.com).

• “Each day that passes with Iran unchallenged is another day in which its power is enhanced and America’s Middle East position is diminished…Power invariably trumps principle, particularly in the Middle East.” (Iran, the Capital of Terror Central, by Herbert London, 04/20/2008, chronwatch-america.com)

•Dr. Brian Melton observed, “Unfortunately, the western world’s naivete regarding what constitutes a ‘smoking gun’ actively discourages our leaders from responding to a threat until it’s too late…on the whole, we have a very silly set of unrealistically high expectations for what our spy services can deliver, most of it bred by watching too much television and too many movies…The fact of the matter is that the world of intelligence gathering and analysis is so complex and evidence available is so vast and yet so incomplete that there will likely never be a ‘perfectly clear’ picture of what any country is doing or planning at any given time.” (Interpreting Intelligence on Iran and Other Rogue Nations, by Brian Melton, chronwatch-america.com)

• The mullahs who control the Iranian government are intensely disliked by a large percentage of their own people, two-thirds of whom are under the age of 30.  For the most part, they are extremely unhappy with the state of their nation’s economy and opportunities for improving their lives under the repressive rule of the current government.

 

In light of the foregoing observations, what can be done about Iran?

My conclusion is, not much, unless we and the other Western nations are willing to act aggressively, which does not appear very likely. By “acting aggressively,” I mean responding directly to Iran’s provocations by taking such actions as sinking their speed boats when they challenge ships in the Persian Gulf and conducting Special Operations inside Iran.  And, if we cannot bring ourselves to preemptively bomb their nuclear facilities, we should at least make it clear that we are prepared to respond in kind if they or al-Qaeda use a nuclear weapon anywhere, ever, and mean it.

One other option I believe we should be pursuing (if we are not already doing so) is actively working to undermine Iran’s current government by supporting those Iranians who wish to overthrow the mullahs.